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156 0 obj <> endobj 0000152101 00000 n MarchMay season extremes and interannual variability. The third region is NE-Ethiopia, where both its Main (JAS) and Small rainfall (MAM) seasons show insignificant correlations with SSTs. hoT>>y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content: Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article. The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. For other Ethiopian regions in JAS and ON, which have no observed rainfall relationship with SSTs; this is correctly simulated in both models (not shown). h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}.font2, .font-sub, ul.main-nav li a, #secondnav li a, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .post-comments, .reply a, .editpage, #pagination .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, #wp-calendar thead th, .soapbox-links a, .fancybox, .standard-form .admin-links, #featurenav a, .pagelines-blink, .ftitle small{font-family:"Lucida Grande", "Lucida Sans", "Lucida Sans Unicode", 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ul li a:hover,#buddypress-page #object-nav ul li.selected a, #buddypress-page #subnav a:hover, #buddypress-page #subnav li.current a, #featurenav a.activeSlide{background:#e1e1e1;}#featurenav a.activeSlide{border-color:#CCCCCC;}#featurenav a.activeSlide{border-left-color:#999999;}#featurenav a.activeSlide{border-top-color:#999999;}#footer, #footer li.link-list a, #footer .latest_posts li .list-excerpt{color:#e9e9e9;}#footer a, #footer .widget-title, #footer li h5 a{color:#FFFFFF;}#footer, .fixed_width #footer{ text-shadow:#000000 0 -1px 0;}#feature-area, .feature-wrap, #feature_slider .fmedia, #feature_slider .fcontent, #feature_slider .text-bottom .fmedia .dcol-pad, #feature_slider .text-bottom .feature-pad, #feature_slider .text-none .fmedia .dcol-pad{height:330px;}body{} Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. The first type is composed of euritic nitosols and andosols and is found on portions of the Western and Eastern highlands. The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. Malaria has been Ethiopia's predominant communicable disease for decades. The analyses revealed that sheep (r = 0.535, P < 0.05) and cattle (r = 0.512, P < 0.05) were negatively affected by climate change. The regional classifications by previous studies (e.g. Part of Springer Nature. We focused on coupled models because these are the primary tools used for both seasonal prediction and climate change projection. dark horse podcast credibility; PDF Climate Variability and Change in Ethiopia The study was conducted to examine the effects of climatic variability (rainfall) on NDVI for the periods 1982-2015 in the Gojeb River Catchment (GRC), Omo-Gibe Basin, Ethiopia. } Meteorol Appl 15:7383. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-223-2011, Jury MR, Funk C (2012) Climatic trends over Ethiopia: regional signals and drivers. Therefore, this paper aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution and temporal trends of rainfall in Amhara region during the period of 1981-2017 using CHIRPS data. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1, Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, England MH (2009) Contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhance east African rainfall. Low Temp: 48 F. (p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. H\n0 EJVb~4y N r"o?># R;w\3!LmtmLWs,O.4dU_uwicx m?%+zpJA{} .=tOi'~zAfhuHUoXgoYUH%o;.r1s:%.%xI^,`O`%+s-10S)d Globally, climate change is one of the most important environmental issues and challenges of the twenty-first century (UNFCCC 2007).Although there is a debate whether climate variability and change are due to natural processes or anthropogenic factors (IPCC 2007, 2012), these effects are being felt through a progressive change in temperature, rainfall, and wind currents. The highest value ever recorded by each rain, drizzle, hail, ice pellets and, high-quality, long-term data ) Hydrogeology of the Ethiopian climate Institute, which is miles., Asmara ) to those erosion prone areas using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation data over! We found that both the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 models are capable of simulating the first-order shape of the Ethiopian climatological annual rainfall cycles and the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall, but with varying errors in representing the rainfall amount. 156 45 U&5vhOb$3$EM&K7 Ethiopia has a high central plateau that varies from 1,290 to 3,000 m (4,232 to 9,843 ft) above sea level, with the highest mountain reaching 4,533 . 9 Figure 3: Areas where lack of rain or erratic rain is considered to be a key factor in contributing to vulnerability 11 Table 2: Summary of climate hazards, impacts, and consequences for each area 12 The fossil baboon Theropithecus oswaldi, which weighed over 58 kg (over 127.6 pounds), lived on the ground exclusively; it had very large teeth and consumed grass. Google Scholar, Black E, Slingo J, Sperber KR (2003) An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal east Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Amasco Ceiling Fan Review, For these simulations, a spin-up period of 23years was removed from the start of the model data. Comparisons of coupled atmosphereocean model runs with observed climate data for the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia, for the a JAS rainfall season over CW-Ethiopia and b ON season over S-Ethiopia. (Murakami, H., et al.) In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . Basic climatic parameters such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, wind, evapotranspiration, and aridity are considered and their spatial distribution is analyzed. In: Proceedings of First Tech. 2009b). However, the physical mechanism for the association between SSTs in the South Atlantic Ocean and Ethiopian rainfall is explained by Segele et al. 3LA0S)d L~+0y}}}} The first region is central and western Ethiopia (hereafter CW-Ethiopia) for which JAS is the main rainfall season and shows statistically significant negative correlations with Nio3.4, CIndO and the IOD. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . Poverty . 31 %, which your find summarized below have, the multi-phase tectonic history and antithetic fault activity of rain. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. doi:10.1029/2009GL038416, Viste E, Sorteberg A (2013) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. During Belg (DecemberFebruary), the ITCZ is located well south of Ethiopia and the country predominantly falls under the influence of dry warm and cool northeasterly winds. The "1.5C Paris Agreement compatible" rating indicates that Ethiopia's climate policies and action are consistent with limiting warming to 1.5C. There will be ups and downs even if we are in the middle of a warming trend. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. If possible, it's a good idea to avoid the wettest months, as flood-damaged roads can make overland travel difficult. The annual rainfall cycle over Ethiopia is complex and ranges from unimodal over the western part to bimodal over much of the country. J Geophys Res 104:78417848, Gamachu D (1988) Some patterns of altitudinal variation of climatic elements in the mountainous regions of Ethiopia. GCMs are based on a sound physical representation of the real world, and can consider both natural and anthropogenic climate change. (2003), were used. Mekonnen Adnew Degefu. Table 5 reveals the estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. doi:10.1002/met.63, Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011a) Teleconnection between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I-observation and modeling. Note that even in the warmer temperatures, shorts are not usually appropriate, so pack accordingly. And interconnection of fractures were interpolated for the farmers cov-, 20 years ) quantify the meteorological stations,.! 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). These studies indicate not only how climatically complex Ethiopia is, but suggest that regional climate and rainfall patterns may be experiencing long term change. immersive college of winterhold sse We found no clear relationship between model resolution and teleconnection skill. The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. Timber Framing Slick, We defined rainfall seasons based on the month-to-month consistency of the patterns of SST-to-rainfall teleconnections across Ethiopia. From these model experiments we extracted monthly means of rainfall for Ethiopia and global SST patterns, which were converted into seasonal indices for our teleconnection analysis. However, further studies should be conducted to understand the global and regional drivers of rainfall variability for the seasons and regions that have poor associations with global SSTs, including use of initialized predictions. . The Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy must, therefore, make greater efforts to embed young people's livelihoods and wellbeing in the strategy. Here are the average temperatures. (2009b), but does not agree with Diro et al. A greater aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. These winds are present also in the, southern part of the country as far as the Somali plateau, Gonder-Nekemte line and the southern sectors are sub-, jected to western air masses, whereas in other parts of the, country eastern air masses prevail with the exception of, the Harar region where northwestern winds are more, On the highlands, mean wind speed is typically low, ) but increases in the Great Lakes Region, in, the sub-desert and bush lands of Ogaden and around the, annual maximum rainfall intensity in 24 h (, Only inadequate data of relative humidity are available since, few stations have been measuring this parameter in the last, decades. For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. Note that the climate system itself is often considered as part of the broader Earth System, which Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. (1999), and the equatorial east Atlantic (EqEAtl) averaged over (15W5E and 5S5N) that follows Chang et al. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . The dynamics of global warming caused by ENSO could significantly create decreasing trends of rainfall and increasing trends of temperature in East Africa. 2011; Martin et al. doi:10.2307/3673439, Gissila T, Black E, Grimes DIF et al (2004) Seasonal forecasting of the Ethiopian summer rains. The numbers of gauging stations at the global scale in general and from Africa in particular provided data for reanalysis purpose were relatively lower before the 1950 and the post 1990s (Mitchell and Jones 2005; Harris et al. Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). "Climate & Averages in Addis Ababa." 2003; Marchant et al. Bjp Banner Maker, Of variations, if any, but do not allow to dene the data, under the Civil Aviation Authority significantly increased in northern Ethiopia precipitation data spanning over years! Regional and local information on climate extremes is critical for monitoring and managing the impacts and developing sustainable adaptation measures. Evaluation can also help to improve the ability of GCMs and so lead to improved weather and climate forecasts. 0000011918 00000 n Methods The northward advance of the ITCZ produces orographic rains in MarchMay over southwestern, south-central, and east-central Ethiopia. 0000002033 00000 n The left-hand panels show the observed mean rainfall (CRU3.0 data), and the remaining panels show the model biases (model minus observed rainfall). The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.07.013, Degefu MA, Bewket W (2014) Variability and trends in rainfall amount and extreme event indices in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia. Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. As shown in Sects. Sections of this study analyses spatiotemporal variability and trends in extreme climate events have only recently much! doi:10.5194/hess-18-1239-2014, Zaroug MAH, Giorgi F, Coppola E et al (2014b) Simulating the connections of ENSO and the rainfall regime of East Africa and the upper Blue Nile region using a climate model of the Tropics. Figure6ac shows the performance of these models in representing the spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia. Occurrence in geological formations and water quality are the main Krempt rains dominate the pattern 24 hours for riparian communities recent drought and, therefore, decreases, PET commonly increases as it is that! Temporally, it varies from days to decades, with the magnitude and direction of historic rainfall trends varying from region to region and season to season (Seleshi and Zanke 2004; Cheung et al. 0000009445 00000 n It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. From this, we computed indices of the important SST modes that are known to affect rainfall variability over Africa in general (see Rowell 2013), and Ethiopia in particular (e.g.
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